FC Bayern in der Taktikanalyse: Wie Kompany mit seinem Spielstil das Risiko minimiert

[Ibiza]

@zdravko27

An opponents 1.0 xG can be a lot more likely to result in two goals than your 3.0 xG. The Frankfurt game is a good example, but there are many others.

Sorry, but if thats really regularly the case then XG would be rubbish - which I generally don’t see at all while following this value since about a decade now in almost any game I am interested in be it at Bayern or elsewhere…

No, of course you can occasionally have a „freak result“ like our last game (or even our last 3 games in a row, shit happens so to speak lol) but that should most definitely be the exception (which of course doesn’t mean you won’t find many such exceptional outcomes if you look at enough games - what counts is the fraction of games where that happens) at least in the longer run!

@justin

. I think xG is not the only thing you should look at, but 1.2 for Frankfurt is much more than they really deserved for how they played. Two goals were pure luck, one was a good play, at least one of the three goals had even a bad shot in the end. Normally Frankfurt won’t get anything in that game. They weren’t more dangerous nor they were better in any way.

And yes, like @justin rightly pointed out a lot actually points to a freak result in this game just like in the last two before that.

And yes, 3 freak results in a row - that maybe sounds made up. But unfortunately sometimes bad luck hits you in a row. That’s life…